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Math · Probability and Statistics

Chapter 3: Probability

Sample Spaces and Simulation

List everything that could happen.

Lesson
2
Time
About 21 minutes
0 of 12 done

Step 1: Let's Learn

Read it, or press Listen and follow the words.

A sample space is the list of every possible outcome. Two coins give four outcomes, not three.

Order can matter

Head-then-tail and tail-then-head are different outcomes. Merging them is why "one of each" gets miscounted as one third.

Tree diagrams

A tree branches once per stage. Following a path from root to tip gives one complete outcome.

Simulation

When counting is hard, imitate the situation with dice or random digits and run it many times.

Designing one

State what one trial is, how the randomness maps onto the situation, and what counts as a success.

How many trials

More trials give a steadier estimate. Ten trials tell you very little; a thousand tell you a great deal.

List everything that could happen

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. Writing it out — with a tree diagram or a table for two-stage processes — turns a confusing probability question into a counting exercise.

Be careful what counts as an outcome

Rolling two dice has 36 equally likely outcomes, not 11 sums. Treating the sums as equally likely is the classic error, and listing the sample space properly is what exposes it.

Simulation when theory is hard

Repeat a random process many times and count how often the event occurs. The result estimates the probability, and it works for situations far too complicated to compute directly.

Designing a simulation

State how randomness is generated, what one trial is, what you record, and how many trials you run. Without those four, no one can reproduce or evaluate the result.

Step 2: Try It Yourself

Tap and try it out.

Four outcomes for two coins. Two of them contain exactly one head, which is why that result is twice as likely.
HH1
HT1
TH1
TT1

Step 3: Watch an Example

One step at a time.

Watch Omar List a Sample Space

Omar tosses two coins and wants the probability of exactly one head.

  1. Step 1

    He lists all four outcomes: HH, HT, TH and TT.

Step 4: Your Turn

Practice makes it stick.

The Two Coins

Problem 1 of 2

How many outcomes are in the sample space for two coins?

The Dice

Problem 2 of 2

How many outcomes for two dice?

List and Simulate

1 of 8

Three coins. How many outcomes?

2 of 8

Two coins. Probability of exactly one head, as a decimal?

3 of 8

Two dice. How many ways to total 7?

4 of 8

Two dice. Probability of a total of 7, as a decimal to three places?

5 of 8

A coin then a die. How many outcomes?

6 of 8

Which gives a steadier simulation estimate? 1 for 20 trials, 2 for 2000.

7 of 8

Put the steps of designing a simulation in order.

  1. 1Decide how the random device maps onto the situation.
  2. 2Define what counts as a success.
  3. 3Run many trials and divide successes by trials.
  4. 4State what one trial represents.

8 of 8

Four coins. How many outcomes?

Step 5: Quick Check

Show what you know.

Question 1 of 2

Three coins. How many outcomes in the sample space?

Question 2 of 2

Why is P(exactly one head on two coins) not one third?

What You Learned

  • A sample space lists every possible outcome.
  • Order often matters, so HT and TH count separately.
  • A simulation estimates a probability when counting is impractical.